Navigating Geopolitical Turbulence: What It Means for European Techpreneurs?
The global technology market is in the midst of a profound transformation. Intensifying geopolitical tensions, and the strategic decoupling between the United States and China are reshaping the rules of engagement for European governments, businesses, and entrepreneurs alike. Recent shifts in global power dynamics have prompted a strategic reassessment of Europe’s role and interests in the international economic system, as European companies seek to balance and remain competitive between these two powers, and the broader narrative of rivalry.
In response, the EU has pursued a dualtrack strategy. On one hand, it has sought closer alignment with the U.S. on issues of security and emerging technologies, as seen in initiatives like the EU – U.S. Trade and Technology Council. On the other hand, it has emphasized strategic autonomy, aiming to reduce dependencies on both the U.S. and China while keeping open channels for economic cooperation with China. This balancing act reflects Europe’s broader objective: safeguarding technological sovereignty while preserving flexibility in an increasingly multipolar global economic order.
The Techpreneur’s Dilemma
Within an evolving geopolitical context, European techpreneurs, key actors driving innovation and growth, face heightened uncertainty. They must navigate political, socio‑economic, and regulatory factors when deciding on international market entry and business model adaptation.
Preliminary insights from incubator-based entrepreneurs indicate a trend: many prefer to expand into the U.S. market rather than China, despite China’s position as the world’s largest consumer economy. This choice reflects perceptions of political stability, regulatory transparency, and strategic alignment with Western innovation ecosystems. Yet, ambivalence is growing. Some entrepreneurs voice concerns about the demands set by U.S. trade policies, while others see China as potential target for internationalization.
The GEOPROS Project
Entrepreneurs are not just reacting to market signals; they are interpreting geopolitical narratives. The U.S. offers familiarity and regulatory clarity, but its unpredictability creates hesitation. China, meanwhile, is seen as a vast opportunity, yet concerns about transparency and political risk remain. This project will be implemented by researchers at the Martti Ahtisaari Institute, Oulu Business School, University of Oulu. The project ”GEOPROS – geopolitical transformation and entrepreneurial repositioning” is led by Docent Marika Iivari, and the other team members are Postdoctoral Researchers Fan Wang and Oxana Gisca. What we observe is a balancing act, as entrepreneurs weigh perceived stability, trust in institutions, and alignment with innovation ecosystems. Their choices reflect not only economic calculations but also how they interpret the geopolitical environment. This is why projects like GEOPROS are important: they provide insights for techpreneurs to understand how global uncertainty translates into entrepreneurial repositioning, perceived risks, and emerging opportunities. Based on these insights, techpreneurs can shape their market strategies while preserving their identity and leveraging new global business opportunities.
Most conversations about geopolitics focus on governments and economies. But what about entrepreneurs, the people who turn ideas into businesses? GEOPROS brings their voices into the discussion. We ask:
- How do EU-based entrepreneurs perceive global uncertainty?
- How do they respond when the rules of the game change?
- What strategies help them stay resilient and innovative?
We will take different angles to address these challenges. First, we examine how politics and policies, such as trade tensions, sanctions, and regulations, shape market entry decisions. Next, we focus on technology and markets to understand how emerging tech trends and compliance frameworks, like the EU AI Act, influence business models. Finally, we aim to capture changes in the social and economic context, exploring how cultural and economic realities push entrepreneurs to innovate differently.
How do geopolitical tensions influence the decision making of European techpreneurs?
Principal Investigator Marika Iivari: “Imagine you’re an entrepreneur in Europe. You have built a great product, your team is ready, and you’re eyeing international markets. Then, your business is in the middle of geopolitical turbulence. Trade wars, new regulations, shifting alliances. Suddenly, the map looks different than you had expected. Which markets offer the biggest potential? Which ones are risky? How do you adapt to the global business environment without losing momentum? This is the reality for many techpreneurs today. And it’s exactly what the GEOPROS project is here to explore.”
We will initiate talks with entrepreneurs, incubators, and policymakers. We are learning how they navigate uncertainty and turn those insights into practical tools. From scenario planning to diversification strategies, GEOPROS helps build resilience where it matters most.
Because resilience is the new competitive advantage, this project aims to help startups survive shocks, strengthen regional economies, and ensure that innovation aligns with societal values amid the turbulence and uncertainty of geopolitical situations. GEOPROS is about turning uncertainty into opportunity. This study will be relevant to entrepreneurs, policymakers, or just curious about the future of business under geopolitical pressures.
Economic stability relies on resilient economies, adaptive businesses, and innovation that can thrive even under uncertainty. That’s where GEOPROS comes in. We share a common goal: building resilience in times of uncertainty.
- Economic stability – Strong entrepreneurial ecosystems reduce the risk of economic fragility that often fuels geopolitical instability.
- Cross-border cooperation – Entrepreneurs forging global partnerships foster trust and mutual understanding.
- Responsible innovation – Aligning technology with societal values supports inclusive and sustainable development.
Geopolitical stability and entrepreneurship are two sides of the same coin. One is built through diplomacy, the other through economic adaptability. Together, they create a foundation for a more stable, connected world.
Looking Ahead
As geopolitical tensions continue to reshape the global technology landscape, European techpreneurs are challenged to adapt, innovate, and reposition themselves in ways that safeguard resilience and competitiveness. The open question remains: how can European techpreneurs, policymakers, and researchers together transform geopolitical uncertainty into a catalyst for resilient and globally adaptive innovation through the GEOPROS project? The GEOPROS project offers a unique lens to understand these dynamics—not only through policy and market analysis but also by capturing the lived experiences and strategic choices of entrepreneurs themselves.